Since DALnet, I have always believed that chatting on IRC will eventually stop if the stupid kiddies don't just STOP it. But they won't. They won't, and no, there is nothing you can do about it.
IRC is also complicated. I've shown a few friends it, and they just get so confused with all the information they have to take in - IdentD? Ports? Hostnames? Channels? Ops? Voice? mIRC? IRC? Network? Server? Client? A look of confusion glazes over their eyes every time the words are mentioned. However, IM clients such as AIM and MSN Messenger are simple and promoted by things that the general Internet community will come across everyday. MSN is Microsoft, AIM is AOL...two HUGE companies, two of the biggest in the entire world. Where do you see IRC mentioned? Microsoft don't go around saying, "The engine of MSN Messenger was made possible by a protocol known as IRC created in 1988 by Jarkko...." etc etc. And how many people in the mainstream public read "internetnews.com".
Not condoning file sharing is a good thing, and TBH I see little point in IRC continuing anyway if it IS condoned just to make it look big. I mean, the whole point to IRC is that people chat using it..otherwise mIRC and other clients just become another file sharing program that could not possibly compete against the millions who use Kazaa or iMesh, and would eventually dissipate until a mere 10,000 or so used it.
To be honest though, I think it's near impossibly to "research" into this. Statistics related to IRC popularity are impossible to be exact on, and they didn't interview the entire world. I mean, ok, DALnet lost a helluva lot of it's userbase - but QuakeNet has grown in leaps and bounds, reaching 216,000 clients. I have noticed GamesNET is now growing on netsplit.de's charts and is often the 5th largest, whereas antecedently it was always 7th or sometimes 6th.
These two networks are infact an example of how IRC can be turned around...because they have been setup for another community. The gaming community. People go around, find a really good online game they're going to enjoy, want to do more to be a part of it...and hey, their home channel is on QuakeNet? using IRC? Well, let's give it a shot!
And so another user is added to the database and the statistics.
So I guess the only way chatting on IRC is going to survive and keep going strong is by having networks that are going to interest other larger Internet communities. Basically, to assimilate other areas that interest people. Question is, what communities are there that would be willing to face the vastness of IRC?
As for improving Services? I don't think it matters. The decline is based upon people not connecting to the networks, so I guess they don't even know about things such as LoveOp or MemoServ. And I don't think making MemoServ, which is supported by about TWO large IRC networks (and they aren't even THAT big in relation to Undernet, EFnet etc), bounce memos to emails, is going to even slightly change the face of IRC. As for LoveOp...I don't even know what that is. I remember when I first started IRC and the first script I used supported LoveOp commands and it confused me, and that's another reason I decided to choose DALnet because the Services were easier to understand. To this day I have not endeavoured to inform myself as to the purpose or meaning of LoveOp!
As for my own personal self...I have no plans of leaving IRC, no plans of even "laying off a bit". "Plans" is the key word of course, we cannot control our real lives and how they are going to turn out and every now and again I have to see someone I know on IRC leave IRC due to real life circumstances.
Anyway, that's my 2 cents (written 10 minutes after I woke up, so I might think of more later!)
Regards,