$chan(#Channel).topic - will give you whats in the topic.

You would have to do something like this which would check if the topic is whatever text...

On me:*:Join:#Channel:{
var %topic = If this topic is this then...
if ($chan($chan).topic == %topic) { set %chgonop 1 }
else { unset %chgonop }
}

Then you would have to have something like this for when you are op'd to change the topic:

On *:op:#Channel:{
if (($opnick == $me) && (%chgonop == 1)) {
topic $chan Your new topic text
}

However, that may seem a little inefficent since you can just do it ON OP using the following:

On *:op:#Channel:{
var %topic = If this topic is this then...
if (($chan($chan).topic == %topic) && ($opnick == $me)) {
topic $chan Your new topic text
}
}

Eamonn.