raw 391:*:{
var %gmt = $calc($ctime($4-6 $8) - $duration($9 $+ :00))
}
From there you have a UTC "ctime" value of the server's current time to do with as you will.
I think the problem with your code is that $gmt isn't truly GMT - it includes daylight savings so you need to use $daylight to account for it. Or something. I dunno, mIRC's time identifiers seem badly messed up to me.